CPEC THE BINDING FORCE
CPEC
THE BINDING FORCE
ORIGINS
Work started on the Karakoram highway
back in 1959. The highway is 1300 kilometers long starting from Hasan abdal in
Pakistan reaches Kashghar in China. It could be hailed as true beginnings of
China Pakistan Economic Corridor. In 1998 the Chinese started taking real
interest in the Gawadar port. It was not until 2002 when construction began and
was completed by the Chinese in 2006, after that work stopped due to political
reasons. During the visit of Chinese premier in 2013 it was decided by both the
friendly nations to develop connectivity between the two nations. The formal
announcement of the project was made in April 2015 during the visit of the
Chinese president Xi Jinping. Needless to say the inception of KKH was a
defining moment because if there was no KKH there would have been no CPEC
upgrading of road networks including KKH and the decision to build 1,240 km
long Karachi-Lahore Motorway along with different other projects were pivotal
in bringing the CPEC to life. Thus in reality CPEC is not starting from
scratch.
THE PROJECT
The original project was worth about
$46 billion but now it’s claimed to be over $56 billion. CPEC encompasses a
multitude of projects listed below.
It is evident the
investment is going to uplift the infrastructure of the country along with the
huge investments in the energy sector. It is going to uplift the economics of
the country in a massive way as CPEC is a very important element of CHINA, s
OBOR (one belt one road) initiative connecting Europe with Asia, the Middle
East and Africa.
For China the project is extremely
crucial as the Chinese intend to use the Pakistani port links to connect with
the maritime Silk Road and establish Silk Road economic belt. It is not very
hard to understand that CPEC is the essential part of OBOR the modern day silk
road, as it is going to connect Gawadar port with the Chinese autonomous region
of Xinjiang Uygur.
The major focus of the project is
going to be on infrastructure for example the port facilities, the city of
Gawadar, the route road networks, railways and oil & gas pipelines. After
that the second most important sector would be development of the energy sector
development of dams’ coal energy plants and non-renewable energy projects like
solar and wind power. |
| Gawadar Port |
THE ROUTES
There are basically three routes plus
a fourth conceptualized. The first one is referred to as the Eastern Alignment.
This route passes through the most developed areas of Pakistan through central
Punjab and Sind. It is effectively going to connect the cities
Thakot-Mansehra-Islamabad-Lahore on wards to Multan. From this point on wards it
will reach Hyderabad through Rohri & Dadu. Hyderabad and Karachi will be
connected by M9 motorway. Karachi and Gawadar the two coastal cities will be
connected through the coastal highway. This is the Easter route.
The central route the second one will
run through Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) and hitherto unconnected parts of Punjab
and Sindh. Most probably its going to employ the current motorway from Islamabad
to Lahore-Faisalabad and then connect with the first route and also move independently
towards Baluchistan through DG khan.The third route currently the most underdeveloped
will run through Dera Ismail Khan-DG khan onwards to Zhob-Queta and onwards to
Makran & Gawadar.
Finally the fourth route referred as
Northern route is actually going to connect all the above mentioned routes with
Khunjerab.
CHINESE & PAKISTANI INTERESTS
Pakistan expects to reap great
economic benefits in the near future. The investments being made in the
infrastructure and energy sector are expected to have a spillover effect in
other areas of the economy. Jobs are going to be created in a wide array of
fields and the Pakistani government expects a reverse brain drain. Special
economic zones are planned along the route to spur industrialization. Further
down the road it could be imagined many industrial concerns shifting partially
or even completely to those manufacturing hubs being envisioned now. This is
very likely keeping in mind the geography and the end users of the many Chinese
products. All the economic activity and the growing middle class is going to be
a great incentive for even more investment coming to the country from other
parts of the world. Foreign exchange reserves of the country are expected to
rise steadily. Pakistan’s all weather geo political friendship is going to get
a huge geo economic face which is very important for Pakistan’s strategic
outlook. The geo strategic importance of Pakistan is going to multiply tenfold
with the execution of the Project.
The relations between Pakistan’s
different provinces are going to improve as well, with increased connectivity
and economic integration of already existing industrial areas with less developed
areas and formation of new economic zones in those areas. All the above achievements
will in turn Islamabad in a better position both in domestic government and
regional positioning.
The greatest benefit for the people
of Pakistan in the next decade is going to be increased prosperity and a
society free of terrorism and radicalization due to increased living standards
and eradication of poverty
Relations with all the neighbors
except India will improve with Iran especially with talk of linking chahbahar
port with Gawadar port, Afghanistan, Turkey, Azerbaijan and the Gulf.
On the other hand the Chinese expect
a win-win situation due to CPEC. China expects prosperity in Pakistan would
help eradicate the scourge of terrorism and therefore protect its Muslim
majority province of Xinjiang.
In addition to that the connection
would help release a significant amount of strain on the
Malacca straits for CPEC would
provide china an alternate and short route to reach out to Middle East and Africa. A lot of Chinese
companies working in those areas will have a short and safe route back home;
Logistic support to such concerns will become less of a headache.
China hopes the project is going to
prove to be an impetus for the Chinese economy as there is a lot of disparity
between the more developed eastern parts of china and western China.
The same benefits are expected in
Xinjiang as Pakistan expects in Baluchistan i.e increased economic activity and
prosperity will help eradicate separatism.
CHALLENGES
Pakistan will face a lot of
challenges that will test the resolve of the government. Foreign meddling will
be a factor and Powers like India will Endeavor to do all in their power to
derail the whole project. Internal bickering and point scoring between the
political entities of Pakistan have a dismal record of wrecking good economic
projects. Pakistan will have to prove its resolve by using a firm hand to
remove all such hurdles and also keep an eye on any foreign elements supporting
such elements and thoughts at home.
Foreign interference in the province
of Baluchistan is well recorded, the country’s military establishment will have
to go an extra mile in keeping such elements in check and irrelevant.
Groups like BLA, TTP, ETIM and their
numerous other subsidiaries will have to be crushed ruthlessly and quickly
along with their sympathizers and moral supporters. In this regard Pakistan and
China will have to take special care of breaking and stopping any sort of nexus
between ETIM and ISIS or al Qaeda. Special focus would have to be put on
relations with Afghanistan on this front China, Iran and Russia would prove
helpful due to shared economic visions.
Geographical hurdles in the north of
Pakistan for example Khunjerab pass which remains closed from November to May
due to snow which create problems for transport companies upgrading roads could
improve the situation on this front.
The lack of proper implementation of
projects especially in efficient distribution of funds and non completion of
energy related projects is going to hamper the progress of the project.
India is openly opposing CPEC with
vigor and with a certain amount of accuracy we could predict that India will
continue to do so. However there is possibility for India to join the project
or should we say Pakistan and China would wish so is going to be more accurate
in addition to the economic benefits many of the hurdles would vanish if that
would happen. Keeping in view the stance of the government of India that is a
highly unlikely prospect therefore India would keep on opposing the project
with all the tools that she could employ including destabilizing the project
through hybrid warfare, psychological warfare and propaganda of Pakistan
supporting terrorism phenomenon as a state adapted policy.
CPEC THE BINDING FORCE
CPEC when executed is truly going to
prove to be a binding force for Pakistan both internally and externally.
After the completion of the project
all the provinces of Pakistan are going to reap great economic benefits
especially Baluchistan. The social fabric of the country is going to gain a
bond which naturally comes with economic prosperity. The thought of
disintegrating Pakistan on the lines of ethnicity is going to die and become
impossible. It is hoped that many industries from china are going to move in to
bring their manufacturing facilities closer to their consumers. That will also
create a huge boom in the job market which in turn is going to help produce a
middle class populace at even faster rates. This in turn will be a boost to the
economy.
On the other hand
CPEC has attracted a lot of interest from all the regional players be it Iran
or Turkey or Russia and other Central Asian states. If Pakistan and China do
include all the interested parties which they eventually will it will integrate
the whole Eurasian region into in an interdependent hub. What is interesting is
they will not require great sea lanes to trade with each other independently.
The joining of Russia is going to give a whole new meaning to the whole
scenario. Geopolitical situation will be reminiscent to the Heartland theory by
Halford John Mackinder. The heartland of the world as described by Mackinder in
1904 from the Volga to Yangtze and the Himalayas to the arctic is a land based
self sufficient region requiring little or no support from the outside. The
connectivity web sought by China through Eurasia will be safe from interference
from America especially with its strong Navy ruling the seas.
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