AFGHAN PEACE PROCESS & THE MEET IN MOSCOW
On 15th of February Moscow is hosting talks
Agenda Afghanistan. Invitations have been extended to three more key players in
addition to the original three i.e. Russia, China & Pakistan. The new
participants are Afghanistan, Iran & India.
It is quite clear quite clear that the three Eurasian powers
have already talked and agreed upon matters and now have decided to move
forward bringing in other relevant players. Afghanistan is obvious Iran has
been part of the Astana dialogues before and has an obvious engrossment in
Afghanistan and will see eye to eye with Moscow. India however while having
interest does not seem to be in agreement over the course of action viable to
the others.
The inclusion of India is due to the relationship Moscow and
Delhi have held for such a long time. It is also being said that the Americans
are also going to be present. The recent shift of India towards USA and its belief
that no Taliban are worth negotiating is not going to give it much weight
either. Diplomacy is going to reign during the talks.
Pakistan has been successful in convincing the Russians
along with the Chinese and to an extent to differentiate between the good Taliban
and bad Taliban. The bad ones posing a threat to the security of the whole
region now by aligning themselves with DAESH are a threat to the Chinese the
Russians Iranians and most importantly Pakistan. Pakistan has suffered the most
from the scourge if you count the Syrians out who have suffered even more. So
it can be safely assumed making it agreeable to Russia & China see through
the same lenses is a huge achievement. Pakistan sponsored talks with the Taliban
in Islamabad which were attended by the Chinese and the Americans as well but
were damaged by American tactics through drone strikes at critical moments;
therefore the Pakistanis had to think quickly and out of the box to improve the
situation as peace in Afghanistan is very important for prosperity in Pakistan.
These talks will introduce to the Indians & for that matter
the Americans the new emerging situation in Afghanistan and the whole region.
However it is very naïve to think India or the US will agree to the plans of
others and will most probably try to clout the judgment and or the decision
making of the Afghan Government. Therefore it can easily be deduced that India
and the US will prove to be obstacles for this Eurasian peace process and may
even convince Kabul to join them. Meanwhile Russia, China, Pakistan and Iran
will reach consensus and will together do their best to make Kabul look at
things their way.
It can be expected the current regime in Afghanistan which
is currently performing with the backing of foreign troops will not come to
terms with new emerging realities as it is merely a stooge force working on the
behest of its foreign backers. As a result it can safely be assumed that not
all will be smooth sailing for the three Eurasian powers.
The
good Taliban are going to be engaged by the three powers with strong opposition
from India & silent opposition from Afghanistan both backed by the Americans.
The result will take the Indians further from Moscow and force Moscow, Beijing &
Islamabad to force a regime change or slowly work through to that eventuality
until Kabul comes to terms or the result is achieved which is going to be more
attainable by every passing day due to receding influence of the Americans in
Afghanistan on ground and growing influence of the good Taliban on ground.
On the other hand Tehran would be keen to join the effort of
pursuing peace and stability in Afghanistan which is because the only other
alternative for Tehran is success of the Americans in Afghanistan which is
going to be an unwanted situation for Iran. Currently the situation suites Iran
to a certain degree only because of the constant bleed Afghanistan is proving
for the Americans. It is going to be hard for some to believe that Iran may ever
be part of such an initiative involving working with “THE GOOD TALIBAN” but there
are reasons enough for the case to be so. The close relations between Tehran
and Moscow are not hidden their co operation in Syria and support of moderate
rebels Jaish Islam in Syria. Therefore there is not going to be much of a
problem doing the same with moderate Taliban in Afghanistan and achieving peace.
Washington is once again building up a case against Iran and does not like to
see the Iranians in any place of influence and going with the drift will prove
very beneficial to Iranian interests.
While many believe that the Americans are looking for a way
out of Afghanistan it is highly unlikely that is going to happen anytime soon.
The reason behind that is the strategic location of Afghanistan vis-a-vis China
& Russia.
It’s a geo strategic foothold the Americans are not going to
let go willingly until the situation forces them to go back which is going to
be orchestrated in the next few years by the co operating nations.
What in the end can we expect from talks to be held in Moscow
on February 15th? Well not much the new allies will hope to get Iran
on board and convince Kabul to negotiate with the good Taliban elements. They
will expect India to change its stance on the issue which is highly unlikely given
current relations between Delhi and Washington. Its going to be a message of
sorts to the Indians that it’s going to be well nigh impossible for them to stop
the progress. Dialogue between or agreement on that may well be a great possibility
which is achievable.
The only major result of the talks is going to be realization
by the three i.e. Russia , China & Pakistan that they have to embark on a
somewhat difficult and long enterprise along with Iran to work for peace in
Afghanistan which is very important for all of them, facing very real
opposition from the US & India.
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