Pakistan,s Nuclear Triad Implications

The nuclear triad as the term refers means three different delivery systems for a nation’s nuclear arsenal. The main reason this is such a coveted ability is due to the fact that it gives the possessing nation an assurance that the enemy cannot destroy all of its nuclear assets in first surprise attack. This gives the ability to strike back from other platforms of the triad assuring deterrence due to mutually assured destruction or MAD scenario. Essential parts of the triad are ballistic missiles, strategic bombers & submarine launched ballistic missiles (SLBM,s) or cruise missiles.

Pakistan currently possesses BRBM,s i.e. battle range ballistic missiles SRBM,s short range ballistic missiles and MRBM,s medium range ballistic missiles. They cover a wide spectrum of ranges from 150 kilometers to 2800 km,s. Than come ALCM, s Air launched cruise missile namely  RAAD its capable of being launched from Pakistan Air force Dassault Mirage 3 Rose and also supposedly from JF 17 Thunders with a range of 350km,s and warhead carrying capability of up to 35 kt.The third part of the triad and the recently developed is named BABUR named after Mughal Emperor Zahir ud din Babur it’s a LACM (land attack cruise missile) & SLCM (submarine launched cruise missile). The SLCM was tested on 9^th of January 2017 using the platform of Agosta 90 B Khalid class submarines with Pakistan Navy. Babur 3 has a maximum range of 450km and flies at 880/kmh mach0.8
babur 3 test video

               

IMPLIFICATIONS:

The foremost result for the Pakistani Military establishment is going to be a certain amount of release from the quandary they found themselves in explicitly “use it or loose it” situation. It was a much dreaded scenario where at the start of an armed conflict the Pakistani military were on tenterhooks to use their strategic arsenal before it was wiped out by the enemy. In the current frame of things they have relatively more space to rethink their moves in the presence of SLCM Babur 3. It is due to the fact that the military establishment now has a chance to strike back at their arch rival India even if they wipe their land based nuclear arsenal completely. Although it (SLCM capabilities) needs to be augmented to make sure the need never arises. This is due to the low range of Babur SLCM which is only 450 kms versus K-4 SLBM and k-15 Sagrika SLBM with ranges of up to 3500 kms and 750 kms respectively. Indian Navy is currently able to deploy both of the aforementioned SLBMs from their nuclear powered submarine Arihant. It will be worthwhile to remember that India aspires to acquire three to six more of the Arihant class submarines. Each boat can carry around twelve k-15 SLBM,s or four k-4 SLBM,s. It is well-nigh impossible to believe that Pakistanis are impervious to the circumstance and thus will have a very determined yearning to get their hands on a Chinese SSN on lease or otherwise the Shang Class  type 093Gs. This is a capable platform which can either deploy both anti ship cruise missiles and long range Land attack cruise missiles. Pakistan in the mean time is acquiring S20 Yuan class Diesel-electric Submarines that will be capable of deploying SLCMs. This also amplifies that Pakistan is going to put significant effort in improving its SLCM capabilities and maybe SLBMs as well. It is very obvious that an ssn would take the Pakistan Navy on a different page regarding deterrence and moving the Navy in the direction of experiencing the nuclear submerged platform. In addition to that it will also enhance to counter the threat in the Aircraft carriers being operated or planned to be inducted in the Indian navy.All this is due to the fact of the question about the current platform the Agosta class submarines operated by Pakistan Navy and the Indian Navies ability to detect them is very probable.

                There is one other aspect of this part of the triad as Pakistan Navy operates only three Agostas which one will carry a conventional warhead and which will go nuclear and in the case of a conflict how will the adversary know which one is which adding to confusion and the command and control of the nuclear capable boats how is that going to be fashioned. These questions are going to be worked over by acquiring new Chinese boats and the eventuality of getting a single SSN platform for Pakistan Navy.

The challenges of maintaining command and control over a nuclear submarine force are difficult and new for Pakistan Navy. The land based Nuclear arsenal lies under a very robust central command and control regimen which has satisfied questions raised by media pundits about its security to the experts around the world. Currently speaking the dilemma of Pakistani Submarine Captain can be hypothesized when he is not able to be connected with the National command Authority what will he assume? What if he believes its destroyed will he take action on own accord?

The success of Babur SLCM where for Pakistan will prove to be a credible pillar of minimum deterrence will also usher in new protocols in the command and control of such weapons and is hoped it will be integrated with the same well founded controls as previously manifested in the command and control of Pakistan’s land based nuclear assets. The recently incorporated Naval strategic forces command will have to move quickly and silence all questions raised on this front.