The Shifting Foreign Policy Paradigms of South Asia & Middle East.

The speed at which things are changing in the realm of foreign policy and strategic partnerships has never been witnessed by the modern world before it is a matter of great consequence and countries slow to acknowledge the facts and the culminating repercussions are going to find themselves in a quagmire chaotic situation where they are unable to achieve their national goals despite trying their best.

The reasons for this sudden movement are very clear the sole policeman of the world is suddenly finding itself challenged not just diplomatically but on the ground as well as we have witnessed serious challenges put forward by the Russians on ground in Syria and China in the South China sea recently. And remembering the Hainan island incident occurred way back in 2001 when an American United States Navy Ep 3e Aries 2 signal intelligence aircraft crashed in to a Peoples liberation Army Navy j8 interceptor fighter jet the resulting dispute was a signal back then. Americans were forced to land in China and China did not return the plane until they had conscientiously examined it. Americans even had to pay for the shipment of the plane back to the USA. That incident more than a decade ago clearly shows the Chinese can go to any extent when they feel a certain limit being traversed more so now as Chinese military machine has come a long way today giving more tactical and strategic options to the decision makers.

In addition to the growing un questionable strength of these two countries the diminishing potency of the reigning Super power is also a factor albeit one less appreciated publicly.

The mainstay of American show of power and diplomacy around the world after the collapse of the soviet union was its battle groups consisting aircraft carriers both China and Russia instead of reciprocating the very expensive war toys employed similar(to each other) methods to counter the threat using ships and shore based batteries of missiles specially developed for anti ship warfare, but in effect the major reason of the shift is the rise of Chinese interests and prowess along with new found Russian stability and wealth.

The consequence is more assertive stances displayed by the Russians and the Chinese. The Americans on the other hand  finding new partners in the shape of the Indians and persuading their old allies under the umbrella of regional Indian dominance. Allies in the Middle East are expected to adapt to the changing situation like the UAE the Saudis and others the scenario leaves the old ally Pakistan in a situation.

Depending on the US from the time of its inception seventy years ago it has no choice but to look east to its all weather friend China and unusually Russia which is monitoring closely the scenario but responding slowly due to its huge military trade relations with the Indians but that too is expected to change as the Indians will have more options with better perks from the US as they already signed LEMOA and looking forward to co operation in aircraft carrier development which will take India away from Russian military hardware eventually and another aspect being close ties developing between China and Russia the Russians are already looking east for business as the west has proved un dependable playing the sanctions game and the Russians making quick strides in integrating their economic infrastructure closely with China.

Therefore we are witnessing Times where India and Pakistan will be shifting boats each, the real question is what are Nepal, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Srilanka, Maldives and Afghanistan going to do?.

China being the dominant power in Asia and India brimming with the desire to be a regional power under the supervision of the Americans both are trying to woo the South Asian nations for example the Indian aid to Bangladesh was worth 2 billion dollars and was seen as a necessary measure to keep the Bengali's under influence but the visit of Chinese president to Bangladesh and Chinese aid amounting to 24 billion dollars had many in India question prime minister Modi, s policies.

The comparatively smaller neighbors of India at heart have never happily accepted Indian dominance here again the Americans will have to help their Indian friends and the American problem is not going to be solved just by sponsoring Indian hegemony in the region.

In the current frame of things with the Trump presidency in the US it remains to be seen how far the Americans will go to do just that to support their Indian allies against China. That is why we can expect countries like Nepal Bangladesh and Srilanka to sway towards china the dangling question is what about Afghanistan well Russia, China and Pakistan held talks in Moscow recently on Afghanistan which in itself is an indicator as there were no representatives from Afghanistan India or the Americans so the conjecture is the puppets in Afghanistan belong to the Americans and the Russians and Chinese along with Pakistanis know that should we expect a regime change in Afghanistan in the near future around two to five years from now as Americans grow weaker and the Chinese and Russians strengthen their links in Afghanistan remains to be seen.  

In the Middle East we have already mentioned the recent surge of bonhomie between the United Arab Emirates and India.UAE was traditionally close with the Pakistanis but the recent phenomenon in gawadar and the fact that India is fast becoming the American champion of the region have fast forwarded the relations between the countries and thus come the plan to take the relationship to a strategic level.

It can be expected others would follow the same beat under American tutelage, what remains to be seen what path is adapted by aal e Saud, KSA being the most important country of the region the recent developments suggest the old allies the Americans and Saudis distancing from each other on questions of 9/11 inquiries and a host of other issues. Saudis will not decide till the last moment they will wait for the American attitude to change which is becoming a bleak possibility every day, reasons being the pace of development and the current US administration.